EC Library Guide on foresight in policymaking: Selected publications
Selected publications from international organisations
- The future of rural manufacturing
OECD, 2023.
The Future of Rural Manufacturing provides insights on the transformations that have occurred in manufacturing across rural regions in recent decades. It describes opportunities and challenges in this context, highlighting those relating to climate and demographic change and digitalisation, as well as shifting patterns in globalisation. With support from the European Commission, the project combines a wide range of both quantitative and qualitative analysis.
The former examines broad trends in manufacturing performance across OECD rural (TL3) regions between 2000 and 2019, with deeper dives that draw on more granular microdata in 14 OECD countries. Case studies were conducted across 12 regions in Slovenia, Germany, Italy, and France. They comprised interviews with over 300 local, regional, and national actors across government, private sector, universities, research institutes, NGOs and non-profit community organisations. The project also benefited from foresight and futures workshops conducted in January and July 2022 with experts and policymakers across OECD countries.
- A global foresight report on planetary health and human wellbeing
United Nations Environment Programme
International Science Council, 2024.
To help navigate current and future uncertainty and disruptive change, while effectively delivering on its mandate, UNEP has been implementing an institutionalized approach to strategic foresight and horizon scanning with the view to developing an anticipatory and future-oriented culture. This mirrors the growing interest and demand for foresight that is also reinforced by the United Nations reform agenda and the Secretary-General’s report on ‘Our Common Agenda’, which calls for all UN agencies, as well as all UN member states, to engage foresight practices more deeply and apply the derived insights to address global systemic risks. This process has culminated in the development of the present report “Navigating New Horizons – A Global Foresight Report on Planetary Health and Human Wellbeing”, produced by UNEP in collaboration with the International Science Council.
The report calls for the world to pay heed and respond to a range of emerging challenges that could disrupt planetary health and wellbeing. It presents insights on eight critical global shifts that are accelerating the triple planetary crisis of climate change, biodiversity and nature loss and pollution and waste. Eighteen signals of change – identified by hundreds of global experts and distilled through regional and stakeholder consultations that included youth – offer a glimpse into potential disruptions, both positive and negative, that the world needs to keep a watching brief on. The report outlines how to create an enabling environment for better decision-making by creating a new social contract, embracing agile and adaptive governance, and increasing integrated accessible data and knowledge.
- Global population growth and sustainable development
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2023.
The report covers the dependencies between population growth and the Sustainable Development Goals, focusing on regions were population numbers are rising fast. The analysis elaborates on the social, economic and environmental implications of population growth. It highlights demographic trends and drivers of population change, namely fertility, mortality and international migration and describes the complex interaction between of population growth and poverty, hunger, health, education and human capital, gender equality, sustained economic growth and decent work. It further investigates the impact of population growth on the environment.
- Global population growth and sustainable development
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2023.
The report covers the dependencies between population growth and the Sustainable Development Goals, focusing on regions were population numbers are rising fast. The analysis elaborates on the social, economic and environmental implications of population growth. It highlights demographic trends and drivers of population change, namely fertility, mortality and international migration and describes the complex interaction between of population growth and poverty, hunger, health, education and human capital, gender equality, sustained economic growth and decent work. It further investigates the impact of population growth on the environment.
- How to implement strategic foresight (and why)
Alberto Behar and Sandile Hlatshwayo. International Monetary Fund, 2021.
This note explains the value of strategic foresight and provides implementation advice based on the IMF’s experience with scenario planning and policy gaming. Section II provides an overview of strategic foresight and some of its tools. Scenario planning and policy gaming have been the Fund’s main foresight techniques so far, though other tools have been complementary. Accordingly, section III focuses on the scenario planning by illustrating applications before detailing the methods we have been using, while section IV describes policy gaming including the matrix policy gaming approach with which we have experimented so far. Section V summarizes the key points. In so doing, the note extends an invitation to those in the economics and finance fields (e.g., researchers, policymakers) to incorporate strategic foresight in their analysis and decision making.
- Reimagining migration and mobility: New ideas for an age-old human phenomenon
International Organization for Migration, 2024.
In the face of the world’s unprecedented pace of change, the necessity for foresight in governance and multilateral cooperation has never been more acute. Recognizing this, IOM engaged School of International Futures, a global nonprofit organization, to draw upon its “three horizons” methodology and work with some of the leading migration practitioners and scholars in the world to “re-imagine migration and mobility”. Through a collaborative approach, involving a wide array of external partners and stakeholders, this project leverages IOM’s global convening power to foster strategic foresight on migration and mobility. This initiative aligns with the United Nations Secretary-General’s vision outlined in the United Nations Common Agenda and is one modest component of IOM’s contribution towards the United Nations Summit of the Future in September 2024. This publication offers the chance for reflection on migration and mobility in a highly competitive and contested world towards a more constructive and evidence-based narrative on migration that underpins informed decision-making going forward.
- The strategic foresight system of the government of Flanders, Belgium
OECD Public Governance Reviews, OECD Publishing, 2024.
Given the important role of strategic foresight in policymaking and resilience, the Government of Flanders has been taking steps to improve its capabilities in this area. This report outlines the main findings and recommendations of the OECD assessment of the strategic foresight system of the Government of Flanders. It includes a blueprint and roadmap for incorporating strategic foresight into the public administration of Flanders over the next five years.
- Supporting decision making with strategic foresight: An emerging framework for proactive and prospective governments
Bruno Monteiro and Rodrigo Dal Borgo. OECD Working Papers on Public Governance, 63/2023.
This working paper discusses strategic foresight initiatives and methodologies that support decision making and process design. It highlights case studies, international benchmarks, and best practices, as well as methodological recommendations and options for promoting the adoption and use of strategic foresight in government. The paper has four sections, each centred on a critical action to improve decision making through strategic foresight: (i) framing strategic foresight, (ii) building its fundamental components in governments, (iii) fine-tuning foresight interventions to specific contexts, and (iv) undertaking concrete activities to solve specific policy challenges. Given its exploratory nature, this working paper and its proposals should be seen as contributing to ongoing debates about the use of strategic foresight for decision making in government. The ultimate purpose of this paper is to help governments become more proactive and prospective.
- To think and act for future generations: Our common agenda policy brief 1
United Nations Executive Office of the Secretary-General (EOSG), 2023.
The challenges that we face can be addressed only through stronger international cooperation. The Summit of the Future in 2024 is an opportunity to agree on multilateral solutions for a better tomorrow, strengthening global governance for both present and future generations. The present policy brief contains suggestions for practical steps to fulfil our long-standing commitment to meet the demands of the present in a way that safeguards the interests of future generations and preserves their ability to effectively enjoy all human rights. These include: an envoy to serve as a voice for future generations at the global level; better use of foresight, science and data; a declaration to define and make concrete our duties to future generations; and a dedicated intergovernmental forum to advance implementation of the declaration and share best practices.
These suggestions build on Our Common Agenda and subsequent intergovernmental and multi-stakeholder consultations, reflected in the “Elements paper for the declaration for future generations”, prepared by the Permanent Missions of Fiji and the Netherlands to the United Nations. The brief responds to the questions raised by Member States during the consultations, including how to define future generations, how to balance our commitment to them with our duties to present generations, how the proposals advance our existing goals for sustainable development, gender, and human rights, and what outcomes are recommended for the Summit of the Future on this issue. This is the first of the Summit of the Future Policy Briefs.
- Last Updated: Apr 14, 2025 11:30 AM
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